The course of true love never did run smooth, the bard tells us, and messy divorces are, like, way way worse. On that note it seems nobody can quite decide whether Brexit will have any benefits for continental European economies or just be plain bad.
- On the potentially positive side of the ledger book, a handful of European countries are scooping up business from financial institutions moving shop, or at least setting up new shops, to avoid the increasingly possibly inevitable hard or “no deal” Brexit. One of the biggest beneficiaries (which almost might suffer the most) is the Netherlands, where the national Financial Markets Regulator (AFM) recently disclosed that over 40 licenses were issues to banks and financial outfits relocating from the UK in preparation for Brexit in 2018. Overall the Netherlands expects 30%-40% of the European stock and bond business to find a new home there if, and when, and also if Brexit finally comes to pass.
- At the same time long-suffering European Central Bank chairman Mario Draghi warned that, no, the drawn-out Brexit process is not doing the European economy any favors, prompting the ECB to keep interest rates low: “The whole discussion on Brexit, which has lasted many years, really, is part and parcel of the overall uncertainty hanging over our continent.”
- There’s also the beyond awkward question of the millions of European citizens still living in the UK. According to a recent report, just 430,000 out of 3.5 million non-UK EU citizens living in Britain have applied for “settled status,” suggesting that millions more may yet choose to decamp. Which would be a bit messy, economically and socially speaking, as this would be like suddenly removing 4.5% of the country’s population, including lots of hairdressers, plumbers, produce pickers and other useful sorts.
